Predictability and Ensemble-Forecast Skill Enhancement Based on the Probability Density Function Estimation

I wish to address development of theoretical framework by improving and combining currently existing methodologies and techniques. I also wish to adapt new approaches based on dynamical systems theories that have not been used to enhance predictability in the past. My overall approach will involve Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions of the probablity density funtion evolution, identification and detection of the predictability elements, and understanding of their impacts on the forecast skills. Knowledge obtained by these predictability studies will naturally lead to a design of comprehensive ensemble-forecast systems with improved skills as wellas data-adaptibe observing systems.